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A damning report?
The 2021 England and Wales Census has finally been released, and the biggest demographic change recorded has been a 13% decline among those who identify themselves as Christians, against an almost identical increase of 12% of those who identify as non-religious. Even more significantly, those who identify as Christians are now less than 50% of the population in England and Wales for the first time.
Many news outlets have been reporting on these numbers, some of them albeit with a sense of triumphalism over what they consider to be an inevitable decline of the Christian faith. However, once again, the truth is far more nuanced than these simple numbers. A closer inspection will in fact show an increase in the Christian faith hidden under a swamp of often irrelevant statistics.
Wrong questions
While a Christian decline is undeniable (more on this later), it must be pointed out that the Census' question itself means very little. For it only highlights those who identify themselves as Christians and, as with most types of self-identification (*cough!), the results are often at odds with reality! More specifically, this question fails to distinguish between nominal Christians and practising Christians. And just as faith without action is as good as dead (James 2:26), so it is with any statistic that does not take Christian practice into account - especially when making an assessment of the spiritual landscape of a post-Christian nation. For while the majority of the UK's population would still want to be in a Church when they are born, get married or get buried, that same majority would not go to Church on a Sunday nor read the Bible - let alone shape their lives around the teaching and example of Jesus. Yet, they would still identify themselves as Christians. For better statistical accuracy, one might attempt to measure up levels of Church attendance or membership to assess Christianity. However, this data is not only hard to come by but, as those in my "trade" all know, going to Church on a Sunday doesn't really make one a Christian.
This type of statistical imprecision also affects the growing number of people that identify as non-religious. Contrary to superficial (and biased!) assumptions, this does not mean that 37.2% of people in England and Wales are atheists - they are just non-religious. As such, they most likely belong to a growing category that identifies as "spiritual but not religious" - a category predominantly populated by younger people. Research, in fact, shows that a large percentage of young people, while spiritually thirsty, refuse to come under external authority and guidance (of Religion) - 32% believe in God, of whom 41% pray (47% every day, 34% once a week).
Hidden growth
As soon as the 2021 Census (and related news) was released, a young member of our Church sent me a text asking me what I thought about it. For starters, this apparent decline didn't surprise me. Indeed the UK and other Western nations have been distancing themselves from their former Christian identity, progressively segregating the Christian faith and its values to the four walls of Churches and private homes while fashioning new sets of "beliefs" and "values". It is also true that there has been a widespread failure to pass on the faith to younger generations, both by parents with a more "laissez-faire" approach to the spiritual upbringing of their children, and Churches that often sacrificed relevance on the altar of tradition. From this perspective, the decline we are seeing is certainly not a failure of Christianity but a failure of Christians and Churches. This is further proved by several Churches that, unlike the trend portrayed in the media, are instead growing exponentially. Not because they learnt a new trick but because of their unapologetic and counter-cultural pursuit of three key pillars of Christian faith and practice - Scripture, Spirit-fullness and Mission.
1. Scripture
I hate it when people talk about "conservative doctrine". Not only does it smell of right-leaning politics with undertones of old white geezer in a suit, but it creates the false impression that the Bible can be read in many different (but equally valid) ways. Whereas it is undeniable that different people can draw different conclusions from the same text, it is also equally undeniable that growing Churches see Scripture as God's authoritative and infallible Word - living it out without fear of being at odds with an ever-changing culture! Unlike popular opinion, it's not bells and whistles, smoke machines, electric guitars or a message that doesn't offend that grow Churches; it's rather a truly expository preaching and practising of Scripture! As pointed out in the chart below, the correlation between Church growth and Evangelical doctrine is undeniable. The opposite is also true! The correlation between Church decline and Liberal doctrine undeniably describes the latter as an arsenic pill in the mouth of Jesus' bride!
The "spirit" of growing Evangelical Churches (irrespective of their denomination) was brilliantly summarised by Andrew Goddard's brave statement on BBC Radio 4 (Nov 6th 2022) "I'd rather the Church be out of step with society than be out of step with Jesus." Those Churches may be very unpopular with a certain slither of society (and their denominations too!), but their success cannot be denied.
2. Spirit-fullness
Jesus once pointed out that the Father is looking for those who will worship him in Truth and Spirit (John 4:23). As it turns out, those who are hungry for God's Word are also thirsty for his Spirit - the second strongest correlation to growing Churches. The evidence is so overwhelming that agnostic journalist Elle Hardy could not help but investigate and acknowledge the phenomenon. Yet, to those belonging to such expressions of Christianity, the data is hardly surprising for, as history also confirms, spiritual outpourings have always resulted in the awakening of an otherwise sleeping Church. In other words, "revivals" can be seen as God's way of taking over when the local Church fails. Pentecostalism was never meant to become another expression of Christianity - but a movement of reformation and realignment among existing Churches. It gained a denominational dimension only as dying Churches rejected what was a powerful yet "strange" experience of God, and expelled all those who embraced it. It is exactly for this purpose that denominations like Elim were born - to provide a spiritual home to revived but rejected Christians. The irony of it all is that what was once a minority is now quickly becoming the majority across the planet. Pentecostals are in fa ct expected to become one in ten people on earth by 2050!
2. Mission
A closer inspection of statistics not only demonstrates that the religious is growing faster than the irreligious but that the Christian faith is growing faster than its Islamic and Hindu counterparts - yet not through higher birth rates, but through conversions! This because Churches that rediscover Scripture and Spirit also rediscover Mission - or, rather, Jesus' great commission to make disciples of all nations. The mission-heartedness and passionate evangelism of growing Churches has not only put them at the forefront of social action across the centuries but created a platform for multiplication.
The opposite, alas, is also true. According to statistician John Hayward, a Church only needs a reproduction rate "R" of 1 to reach five times its current size by the end of the century. Yet anything under 1 will only doom a Church to slowly age and die.
Within this Missional drive, growing Churches also invest significant resources to reach out to younger generations - another more nuanced predictor of growth. According to research by Youth For Christ, 72% of Churches across the denominational spectrum here in the UK have no young people at all, and half of Anglican Churches only have fewer than 5 under the age of 16. Yet, Churches with young people are twice as likely to be growing and where they employ a children or youth worker they are half as likely as other Churches to be in decline.
Conclusions and the way forward
The fact that people identifying as Christians in England and Wales have gone down from 59.3% to 46.2% of the population in the last 10 years does not point to a growing irrelevance of the Christian faith (yes, I'm talking to you Humanists and Secularists!). From personal observation, the decline is less likely due to people who, 10 years ago, defined themselves as Christians but now don't - for the grounds for nominal Christianity haven't really changed. Rather, it is due to the inevitable decline of an older and traditionally Christian generation against the rise of a new generation that won't identify with something they are only connected to traditionally. As Evangelical Alliance's Danny Webster points out, at best this is a change in labels. This is further demonstrated by Talking Jesus research, according to which the number of practising Christians in the UK has remained fairly stable between 2015 and 2021 (around 6-10%).
While indeed certain expressions of Christianity are on the decline, others are not only growing but are on track to "replace" the ones that fail to pursue Jesus' Word, Spirit and Mission. What we are seeing, both statistically and on the ground, is the Church's vine being pruned by its divine Master - cutting off what's dead to increase the fruitfulness of the live branches.
In relation to other faiths (and no-faith), Christianity is still growing at the fastest rate. All we must do to keep this momentum going is not screw up and depart from the original blueprints left to us by Jesus - no matter how "offensive" they may be.
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